I went to the Maya site in search of the indie license information. Interestingly enough, they hide that as well as MAXON hides cost information about their perpetual license upgrades. I did not find any information on the indie licensing. I had to do a wider Google search (check here) to find that it was $250/year.
It is apparent that Autodesk is setting the price ceiling on subscription licensing fees and that MAXON's position will always be competitive to what Autodesk does (eg. something lower). Maya's licensing fees are absolutely horrendous and death to the hobbyist: no perpetual licenses and $1620/year.
As a hobbyist, nothing would drive me to Blender faster than should MAXON follow Maya's subscription plan .
But nothing would keep me perpetually dedicated to Cinema 4D faster than if MAXON followed Maya's indie plan.
So obviously, something drove Autodesk to offer an indie license and I am pretty sure that it wasn't just because they wanted to be nice people and feel good about themselves. It was probably something we all expected: Their customer base of indie users was bigger than they expected and they lost a good chunk of that base when they implemented their high cost subscription plan. Where that base went (Houdini, Blender, C4D) is anyone's guess, but it represented enough revenue to Autodesk that they took it seriously and wanted it back and thus implemented their indie pricing plan in key markets only (obviously markets with a lot of indie users ---- proof enough that they weren't just being nice guys but trying to win back customers).
I think MAXON is trying to dance somewhere in between with a subscription plan that is acceptable to everyone. Whether or not the hard core hobbyist buys into their middle ground approach will become evident over the next couple of months as the last of the MSA's expire and the hobbyist is faced with a choice: submit to the subscription plan for however long you want to keep using C4D or pay the higher cost of a perpetual license.
So...if history is any judge....I say we stand our ground. No matter how exciting the next release looks, hold onto R21. Every company sets budgets predicated on a prediction of future revenue. Given MAXON's recent acquisition costs (Redshift and Red Giant), their cash reserves may not be what they once were...some of their cushion could be gone. So meeting their revenue targets could be something they deeply care about more about now than they did in the past. Therefore, if that revenue is unexpectedly less than what they predicted, they could change plans in favor of the hobbyist. That is what Audodesk did.
So hold tight people and see what happens.
"We are in the endgame now"
Dave